Research shows signs of ‘tipping point’ for electric vehicles in UK used car market

Second-hand electric cars may be close to a “tipping point” where they become more popular than equivalent petrol and diesel cars in the UK, new research shows.

Researchers analyzed data from car sales website Auto Trader, comparing daily views of adverts for electric vehicles (EVs) with petrol/diesel cars.

The paper, published in the journal Earth System Dynamics, is titled “Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK’s second-hand electric vehicle market.”

Interest in second-hand EVs grew rapidly, doubling from 3.5% of advert views in 2022 to 7% in 2023.

Importantly, interest in EVs became more “sticky.” Events such as petrol price increases drove extra EV views—and over time these spikes of attention lasted longer and longer.

“To identify a possible tipping point, we look for evidence that the status quo may be losing resilience—becoming unstable,” explained Dr. Chris Boulton, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.

“For example, in the Amazon rainforest we examined daily vegetation changes and found the forest is recovering more slowly from disturbances like droughts—making it vulnerable to a tipping point.

“In the case of second-hand EVs, we analyzed data from 2018-23.

“Early in that period, spikes in EV interest subsided quickly, in just a few days. Later spikes lasted longer, up to several weeks.

“And over time, EVs made up a larger and larger proportion of the ‘baseline’ state.

“This is a strong signal that UK drivers are becoming more receptive to second-hand EVs—and this will probably increase further as technology continues to improve, prices continue to fall and more EVs reach the second-hand market.”

Professor Tim Lenton, also from the University of Exeter, said, “Our findings provide a clear signal that the status quo—dominance of petrol and diesel cars—is becoming less stable.

“This is an early opportunity signal to the government and to investors to drive change, knowing that they will get a disproportionate return on their efforts.

“Now we know this tipping point may be happening, actions can be taken to accelerate it—helping to cut the 13% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions that come from cars.”

Policies to support this tipping point could include more EV charging points (including on-street charging in residential areas), simpler charging services, and improving the electricity grid.

Dr. Boulton added, “We’re grateful to Auto Trader for giving us access to this data, which offered a powerful way to assess changing levels of interest in second-hand EVs over time.”

In the new car market, EVs are on course to overtake petrol and diesel sales globally. In the UK, EVs made up just 0.7% of new car sales in 2019. In 2023, this figure had risen to 16.5%.